International trade

, Global trade in flux: Disruption, resilience and opportunity

What is the broader macroeconomic and historical context for these shocks?

As we observe short-term shifts in trade, it’s equally important to consider the longer-term backdrop against which these occur. For correspondent banks, the reconfiguration of global trade has been going on for some time as a result of multiple factors and global events.

After the turn of the century, we saw a pronounced focus by regulators on controlling terrorism financing and money laundering. In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, we saw more stringent risk management regulation being implemented, and the 2010s brought a wave of widespread de-risking as many banks exited correspondent relationships deemed too risky or no longer essential – contributing to the widening of the global trade finance gap.

More recently, regional military conflicts, the COVID-19 pandemic and the upending of the established world trade order have added new layers of complexity to an already shifting landscape. All of this reminds us that today is not a starting point, but another step along an already established path of transformation.

Given this background of disruption, are there any aspects of today’s situation that are genuinely new?

There is an underlying aspect to today’s situation that is unique from a historical perspective. Since the end of the Cold War, global integration has accelerated dramatically – the world has become far more interconnected and interdependent than it ever has been before.

Today, a much larger proportion of any one country’s GDP is composed of what it buys and sells with other countries than has been the case in earlier periods. Imports and exports now exceed 50 percent of global GDP. This is unprecedented over the last 200 years.

Every event has ripple effects across a globally interconnected economy. The result is that any disruption is no longer local or even regional. We saw this dynamic during COVID, which served almost as a trial run for what we are seeing in 2025.

After the outbreak of the pandemic, there was much debate about moving away from just-in-time delivery systems, because interrupted supply chains meant it was no longer guaranteed that a manufacturer could obtain the materials or stock it needed at exactly the moment these are required. Warehouse managers reflected anew on the merits of building up inventories to cushion potential supply disruptions.

Alongside that, companies started looking for new outlets or markets closer to home, where they could manage risk more effectively. Later on, questions surrounding issues of security of supply raised by the war in Ukraine only compounded this effect. However, because of the subsequent disruptions we are experiencing, the global environment has not settled long enough for these supply chain adjustments to become widely entrenched.

Unlike previously, it seems that current geopolitical events are driving a more profound transformation of the rules-based global order that we have known for at least the past 35 years. The long-term ramifications are yet to be seen.

Looking ahead, how do you see countries and businesses reacting to the shifts in the trade landscape?

Wherever there is disruption, there is also undeniably opportunity. Countries are renegotiating trade corridors and building new relationships – this is apparent in the renewed momentum to secure trade agreements between Europe and Asia-Pacific, with Indonesia, with India, as well as with the Mercosur countries in South America.

On the business side, corporates here in Germany seem to be balancing two objectives. On the one hand, companies are trying to preserve strong relationships with with buyers and suppliers in the United States and China, which are still some of Germany’s most important trading partners. On the other hand, there are indications that corporates are interested in exploring new markets and preparing for future shifts in supply chains.

Financial institutions, in turn, have their own specific needs and priorities. Correspondent banking has become ever more focused on service efficiency. Bank clients want quick turnaround on transactions – and that means strong service levels, reliability and responsiveness. There is also the question of intermediation. Following years of de-risking across the industry, many banks scaled back their international relationships in favour of a regional or even local focus. With anticipated shifting global trade trends and corporate clients looking into new trade markets, banks now seeking out partners to assist them in markets for which their own capacity is either small or no longer exists.

How do international trade finance banks like Commerzbank help bring stability and resilience to businesses in turbulent times – and ultimately turn challenges into opportunities?

Banks play two fundamental roles in supporting global trade. Most directly, they facilitate aspects of the trade transaction itself through the use of traditional instruments such as documentary collections, letters of credit and guarantees. Secondly, but no less importantly, financial institutions manage the risks associated with trade – documentary risk, performance risk, payment and financial risk. The banks best placed to provide these services are those with global connectivity and possessing a strong reputation for integrity and efficiency.

In a disrupted global environment, these roles become even more critical – and open the door to new opportunities. As clients seek out new markets or re-evaluate existing ones, the most successful banks will be those who can most effectively support their clients to manage the risks and complexities, and to integrate their operations or supply chains into these new markets.

Being present is not enough. It requires aligning the bank’s full infrastructure behind that presence. This means adapting products to local needs, however specific they may be. It means ensuring operational capabilities are set up to manage time zone differences. And it means that risk appetites are aligned with local counterparties, and that teams understand the regulatory and cultural contexts on the ground.

This kind of flexibility and presence across different geographies is incredibly valuable – it gives clients continuity and confidence – and, ultimately, serves to unlock new business possibilities. And clients need more than just credit. For clients, both corporates and banks, there is significant value in having access to global expertise to help them identify and exploit new opportunities in these uncertain times.